Source: Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin Remarks to the University of Pennsylvania Commencement Philadelphia, PA
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/rr3152.aspx
"As I think back over the years, I have been guided by four principles
for decision making.
First, the only certainty is that there is no
certainty.
Second, every decision, as a consequence, is a matter of
weighing probabilities.
If there are no absolutes then all decisions become matters of judging
the probability of different outcomes, and the costs and benefits of
each. Then, on that basis, you can make a good decision.
A healthy respect for uncertainty, and focus on probability, drives you
never to be satisfied with your conclusions. It keeps you moving forward
to seek out more information, to question conventional thinking and to
continually refine your judgments. And understanding that difference
between certainty and likelihood can make all the difference. It might
even save your job.
Third, being decisive in the face of uncertainty.
In the end, all
decisions are based on imperfect or incomplete information. But
decisions must be made -- and on a timely basis -- whether in school, on
the trading floor, or in the White House.
Fourth, and finally, judging decisions.
Decisions tend to be judged
solely on the results they produce. But I believe the right test should
focus heavily on the quality of the decision making itself."
